Methodology
I've already described in detail in previous posts how I generated my maps based on the TTC schedules. Simulating the effect of the new transit plans simply involve adding in new fake schedules for the new transit lines. I could create these fake schedules based on the descriptions of stops, headways, and vehicle speeds given in various TTC and Metrolinx reports (many of which I found by digging through Steve Munro's blog). One issue I purposely avoided dealing with though is the fact that existing bus lines are modified whenever new transit lines are introduced. For example, when a new subway is introduced, bus service in the area is drastically reduced because most people will take the subway and the TTC needs the cost savings from eliminating bus service to pay for the operation of the subway. The bus service that is maintained is usually redesigned to funnel as many people as possible to the subway instead of trying to take people directly to their destinations. I considered the possibility of building up new fake routes and schedules for buses near the new transit lines, but it seemed time-consuming and error-prone. Instead, I'll just rely on the reader to use their judgment when interpreting the maps. The maps only show a broad approximation of what might occur if the new transit lines are introduced.
Baseline
Both of these plans will probably take 10 years to finish, so the Spadina subway extension will be done long before these plans will be implemented. Since the Finch LRT is designed to link up with the Spadina extension, it's important to model the Spadina extension in the experiment.
I went to the TTC website for the Spadina subway extension and figured out the approximate positions of the new subway stations. I wasn't sure if I put the stations in the right spots (i.e. beside existing bus stops so that transfers are easy), so to be safe, I changed the simulation to allow people to walk 200m between stops (unlike the 100m limit that I used previously). The different stations were about 1-1.5km apart from each other. Elsewhere on the Yonge-University-Spadina subway line, the subway seemed to be able to travel about 1.2km in about 2 minutes and 15 seconds, so I used that as the time needed to travel between each station on the new extension. I went through the existing schedules for the YUS-subway. Whenever a subway ended its route or began its route at Downsview station, I extended its schedule with stops along the Spadina extension.
Here is a map of the transit times to downtown including the Spadina subway extension:
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| Transit times to downtown with the Spadina extension Data, imagery and map information provided by MapQuest, Open Street Map and contributors, CC-BY-SA. |
Eglinton Subway
Although I was able to find general information about the Eglinton subway, I have problems finding detailed reports about its route. I was able to find information about all the stops for the Eglinton LRT, so I simply took this list of stops and pruned out those stops that were too close together and hence unlikely to be made into a subway station. The information I could gather from various Metrolinx presentations suggested that the Eglinton subway would go along Eglinton from Black Creek to Kennedy and then follow the route of the Scarborough RT to McCowan. The average speed for route was simulated to be 32 km/h with a 6 minute peak-time headway.
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| Transit times to downtown with the Spadina extension and the Eglinton subway Data, imagery and map information provided by MapQuest, Open Street Map and contributors, CC-BY-SA. |
Eglinton and Finch LRTs
I was able to find information about the Eglinton LRT stops and simply fed those into the model. The Eglinton LRT goes along Eglinton from Jane to Kennedy. The stops from Keele to Laird are underground while the rest are below ground. When moving between underground stations, I modeled the LRT as moving at 32 km/h. At other times, I modeled the LRT as moving as 22km/h. I kept the 6 minute headways the same as with the Eglinton subway. There is talk that this plan might include rebuilding the Scarborough RT as an LRT that goes from Kennedy to Scarborough Town Centre and then to Sheppard, but I couldn't really easily find any reports on this, so it might just be talk.
For the Finch LRT, I was able to find a list of stops in the Finch BRT plan. I modeled the Finch LRT as moving at 22km/h with 5 minute headways.
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| Transit times to downtown with the Spadina extension, Eglinton LRT, and Finch LRT Data, imagery and map information provided by MapQuest, Open Street Map and contributors, CC-BY-SA. |
In the end, it turns out it's really hard to tell the difference between these two transit plans. Part of the problem is that my maps only have a new colour for each 20 minute interval, so commute times have to differ by at least 10 minutes before it's even noticeable on the map. Overall though, neither the subway or LRT plans provide large transformative changes compared to the other.
The Eglinton LRT is essentially the same transit line as the Eglinton subway except that it pops up above-ground for a few small sections. These two small sections are rather short and don't have a major effect on commute times. As such, both plans have largely the same effect in the central portions that are underground or near the underground sections.
Both plans provide a significant benefit to people living on Eglinton in the west. They seem to see good improvements in commute times to downtown. The Eglinton LRT extends a little bit further west than the subway, reaching Jane Street instead of ending at Black Creek. The map seems to suggest that this extra stop gives the LRT an additional benefit over the subway for people living west of Jane Street. I'm not sure if the extra 1.5km of LRT actually makes that big a difference in travel times. It might just be an anomaly with the way the LRT schedule lines up with the local bus schedule in the simulation.
Both plans show some small benefit on Eglinton between Yonge and the Don Valley. That area was actually already well served by buses and express buses, so the subway and LRT don't provide huge improvements in commute time to downtown.
The LRT shows some improvements in commute times for people living on Eglinton between the Don Valley and Victoria Park. The subway shows even more improvement for the people who live in that area.
Once you go east of Victoria Park though, things become a little murky. My maps seem to suggest that east of Victoria Park, it's no longer clearcut as to whether you should go downtown via Eglinton or take a bus down to the Bloor Danforth subway and ride that downtown instead. If a subway is built, it looks like it would be slightly better for commuters in the area to take the Eglinton subway over going down to the Bloor Danforth, especially if bus service ends up cut later on to fund the operation of the Eglinton routes. If the LRT is built, then it's probably better to take the bus down to the Bloor-Danforth than to take the LRT.
Once you actually get to Kennedy station though, I think it really becomes a toss-up as to which route you should take. If Metrolinx was overly conservative on the speeds for the Eglinton subway, and the TTC schedule for the Bloor-Danforth subway is optimistic then maybe it makes sense to take the Eglinton. Otherwise, my maps seems to suggest that the Scarborough RT and Bloor-Danforth subway actually already work pretty well together in providing fast service to Scarborough south of the 401. The main benefit of the Eglinton subway was that you wouldn't have to transfer at Kennedy onto the Bloor-Danforth subway not that it would actually get you downtown significantly faster. If the Eglinton LRT is built, then it is definitely better to take the Bloor-Danforth subway downtown than to travel along Eglinton.
One caveat of my discussion so far is that these maps show commute times to downtown. For people in Scarborough traveling to midtown, then there is a noticeable difference between the Eglinton LRT and Eglinton subway (7 extra minutes). For Scarborough people going downtown though, the Eglinton subway doesn't provide a huge benefit.
The main benefit of the Eglinton LRT over the Eglinton subway though is that it frees up money to spend on an LRT along Finch. The maps show that a Finch LRT provides a small improvement in commute times. Compared to existing service, the Spadina subway extension will actually provide a huge benefit in terms of improving commute times to downtown from the Jane and Finch area. The building of an LRT will only provide some modest improvements over the existing bus lines by about 6-7 minutes or so for people living around highway 400. It's not a huge, transformative gain, but that and the more reliable service that comes from having dedicated transit lanes are nice.
Big Picture
To be honest, I was a little disappointed at how little difference there was between the two plans. I was thinking that there would be huge swings in transit times depending on whether you included the full Eglinton subway or Finch LRT. Instead, all this arguing and fury over the plans are mostly about minor 5 minute differences in commute times at very specific points in the city. The colour differences on my maps are so small that I find it hard to tell the difference between actual differences in commute times and calibration problems with my monitor.
Personally, I think the main thing that all this simulation has shown me is how much Toronto's obsession with subways and trains has poisoned its transit planning. The people of Toronto have literally spent decades arguing over how to find the billions of dollars of funding necessary to build new LRTs and subways. Yet small, modest, and cheap improvements that provide real benefits like buying double-decker and articulated buses or setting aside land for future transit corridors have been completely ignored.
I was actually thinking of doing some further simulations comparing the difference between a Sheppard subway extension to Victoria Park vs. a Sheppard LRT, but my current simulation results suggest that it would be pointless to do so. All the experts and consultants already know what the results of these sorts of simulations are. All that bluster and anger are about whether a billion dollars should be spent to let people at Victoria Park get to downtown 10 minutes faster or whether a billion dollars should be more evenly distributed so that people all along Sheppard can zip down Sheppard 5 minutes faster. In the end, I don't think either plan makes a big difference to anyone.
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